During the 2024 election campaign, Mr. Trump promoted strong trade measures to protect the US economy. In particular, he imposed a 60% tax on goods from China to reduce the trade deficit with this country and promote domestic production; impose broad tariffs of 10% – 20% on other countries, aimed at protecting American industries from international competition. According to Dragon Capital, Mr. Trump’s statements on taxes, if implemented, could cause negative impacts on exporting countries, including Vietnam. Bilateral trade between Vietnam and the US has increased significantly from 50 billion USD in 2016 to 110 billion USD in 2023, equivalent to an increase of nearly 120% over the previous two terms.

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An important factor to note is that diplomatic relations between the two countries have improved significantly since Mr. Trump’s first term, when Vietnam and the US upgraded their diplomatic relations to the level of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. (CSP) with a commitment to extensive cooperation in many fields. Regarding the impact on the stock market, Dragon Capital commented that three years before COVID-19 broke out, under Mr. Trump, businesses listed on the Vietnamese stock market achieved impressive net profit growth, up to 19.1%. However, Mr. Trump’s unpredictable policies and statements have increased market volatility. However, VN-Index still recorded a compound annual profit of about 15% during this period, only slightly lower than corporate profit growth due to the impact of discounting from market fluctuations.

Emerging markets, including Vietnam, may continue to suffer valuation discounts, as occurred during President Trump’s first term. This leads to the expected profit of the Vietnamese stock market being lower than corporate profit growth. Companies in the export industry group that are directly affected by President Trump’s upcoming policies only account for a small proportion in the VN-Index, so risks from this group will have a negligible impact on the entire market. school. Domestic investor sentiment remains positive, because many people have an optimistic view of Mr. Trump’s election.